GOP Nomination Standings: Onward toward SoCarl

New Hampshire was pretty much decided before the votes were even cast in the Republican race to become that party’s nominee for President. Barring a colossal upset, Mitt Romney was going to win his New England backyard and he needed a big win to move the ball forward after squeaking out a barn burner in Iowa. His win was indeed huge, and Romney became the 1^st non-incumbent Republican to capture both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Here are the numbers with 95% of the votes counted so far:

Mitt Romney: 95,669 39.4%

Ron Paul: 55,455 22.8%

Jon Huntsman: 40,903 16.8%

Newt Gingrich: 22,921 9.4%

Rick Santorum: 22,708 9.3%

Rick Perry: 1,710 0.7%

Buddy Roemer: 918 0.38%

Renegade Candidate Ron Paul finished significantly higher than expected with a huge influx of independents and young people turning out for the extreme libertarian. Paul has claimed to be in this race for the long haul and will take each delegate he collects to the convention. You can bet his supporters will be as disruptive as possible to the eventual establishment nominee. His post-Primary speech was rife with energy and his followers took over trending topics on twitter for a time last night. Enthusiasm is never a problem with Ron Paul voters.

Jon Huntsman had a respectable showing in 3^rd place with 16.8% of the vote, but there are big questions of where the former Ambassador can make his next stand after putting so much effort into New Hampshire. Unlike Paul, he has not been cultivating much of a national base of support, and although he has vowed that his ticket has been punched to South Carolina, I can’t see him making much of an impact among the Southern voters there.

The two men most likely to still unite a Conservative challenge to Romney’s nomination both came in a little bit under expectations last night with Newt Gingrich finishing in 4^th place with 9.4% of the vote, and Rick Santorum sliding in right behind him at 9.3%, only a few hundred votes separating the two. It is actually good news for Romney that neither of these candidates were able to even top Mike Huckabee’s totals from 2008 in this race.

Rick Perry meanwhile was persona non grata in the Granite State. He couldn’t even crack the 1% mark and for all his Texas oil millions, he barely squeezed out a margin about virtually unknown candidate Buddy Roemer from Louisiana. It seems like all momentum seeped out of the Perry campaign months ago with an unreal amount of debate gaffes. He is now a shallow hull of a candidate, only being propped up by leftover funds from the period when he entered the race with tons of energy and cash influx. Don’t expect to see him in this race much longer.

GOP Nomination Standings: New Hampshire Primary day

Today the rubber hits the road in the New Hampshire Primary.

From what I can see so far, this State is definitely Mitt Romney's to lose. Coming off a razor thin win in Iowa against the surprisingly surging Rick Santorum, Romney certainly needs a more significant margin of victory to solidify his status as front runner coming out of the Granite State. The word “inevitable” is starting to find its way around Romney’s path to the nomination, but no matter how well he does in New Hampshire, he will not be able to sow things up in this 1st in the nation primary.

The Anti-Romney forces have pretty much conceded the New England early battleground to him, and plan to make their last, best pitch to the much more stridently conservative citizens of South Carolina. Rick Perry is already there, hoping that some Southern Home Cookin’ will suit him better than the bitterly independent residents of small town Bedford, Berlin, and Barrington.

Jon Huntsman has staked almost his entire campaign on New Hampshire and a poor showing here would all but sink his aspirations for the Oval Office. He has had a bit of a mini-surge recently, but his followers hoping for a Santorum-in-Iowa like showing are probably not basing their expectations within reality.

Speaking of Santorum, he has ridden the wave of momentum coming out of his stunning surprise in the Hawkeye State with some savvy, raising quite a bit of cash which is like lifeblood to these campaigns, but New Hampshire is not exactly fertile ground for his brand of conservatism. Mike Huckabee won Iowa outright in 2008 on the back of evangelicals, but couldn’t crack 11% in this primary. Santorum should expect about the same number. He needs to somehow convince a lot of Newt Gingrich supporters that he is actually their man to beat Romney in South Carolina in order for him to extend the contest much further.

And of course Ron Paul is going to be in this thing for the long haul. I am more and more convinced his strategy is not to win the nomination outright, but to force the eventual nominees hand by collecting enough delegates to get some of his stridently held ideals into the platform for the General Election. We shall see if the hardline libertarian handcuffs the Republicans or opens the gates to infuse the enthusiasm of his demographically dissimilar base into the usually staid convention halls of the Grand Old Party.

It should be an interesting night to watch the results come in, not so much for the eventual winner, but to see who the real losers are. At this point it is all about  fundraising, media spin, and campaign narrative as the actual delegate count will be rather insignificant from this early race.
Here are the numbers I expect to see, and if any of these candidates come in +/- 5% or more from the expected # it can be spun as a big win (or loss) for their campaign:

Mitt Romney: 40%
Jon Huntsman: 18%
Ron Paul: 16%
Rick Santorum: 11%
Newt Gingrich: 10%
Rick Perry: 2%
.

2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 5

Click Here for Prior Weeks Standings:

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Michelle Bachmann has vaulted up from a strong showing on a national debate, some positive press, and a new Iowa poll showing her nipping at the heels of the Romney campaign. She will be listed as trending up, but really she has skyrocketed from potential tea party darkhorse to household name seemingly overnight. She has some serious, serious momentum behind her and if her fundraising numbers come up strong, she can easily overtake Romney for the #1 spot. But not quite yet. Let’s see where this all is heading before we start to do a state by state breakdown of her vs. Obama.

I know there is some Rudy Giulliani speculation out there. I don’t think he will run, and if he does run, I don’t think he’ll put in enough effort to win. Rudy is still a recognizable name-brand in some circles, but an empty and hollow one in proper context. He might have squeezed into the 11th spot on this list if I had one, but I feel that the 10 folks listed above are either more serious about running (Santorum and Pawlenty) or have a better chance to win the nomination if they do jump in (Palin and Perry), so the former NYC mayor remains outside my core group of candidates.

This is also the 1st time since I started these rankings that my list consists of the same 10 candidates as the last list, I think that is a sign that as we get into the summer that the field is solidifying. Anyone seriously thinking of getting involved, such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, better start organizing teams quickly, before this train leaves the station, if they want to have a legitimate chance to win. History shows that late coming ‘saviors’ to the party get a quick boost media fueled spike, but fizzle out as the logistics of being months behind in fund raising and ground organization ultimately dooms them.


1) Mitt Romney Trending Steady(Last Week: 1) Lost in all the Bachmann hoopla is the fact that frontrunner Romney still won a plurality of the Iowa poll which vaulted her into the primetime conversation. His money numbers can be expected to blow smaller ships out of the water. He got to this point for a good reason, and he may be vulnerable, but that doesn’t mean he will be an easy knock off.
Current Headline: Mitt Romney, Boring Genius?

2) Michelle Bachmann Trending Up (Last Week: 6) Things sure are looking up for Bachmann. It was obvious that there was plenty of room at the top of the field, and she surged into the vacuum to challenge Romney, whom hardline conservatives see as weak and compromising. Can she unite and hold the ‘Anyone but Romney’ voters all under one tent?
Current Headline: Michele Bachmann's Moment: Can She Sustain It?

3) Herman Cain Trending Steady (Last Week: 3) Bachmann halted Cain’s advance to a dead stand still. He can really go either way from here, but the potential upswing has been blunted by the space that Bachmann now occupies. He has to be smart and prove his business sense can translate to political savvy to stay this high in the running.
Current Headline: Black GOP Candidate Missing Right Words

4) Sarah Palin Trending Down (Last Week: 2) I’m beginning to really believe Palin when she says that she isn’t sure if she is running for president or not. Everything seems to indicate to me that Palin is just winging and ad-libbing her way through this summer. She has proven to be a loose cannon in the past, so who really knows with the former Alaska Gov. But I don’t think you do as many bus tours as she is without at least making a run. With Palin though, anything is possible.
Current Headline: Not a Whisper From Palin

5) Ron Paul Trending Steady (Last Week: 5) Paul has become the dividing line between those in the hunt and those in trouble. If you are above Paul, you are in serious contention. Fall below and it may be time to rethink some strategies. Paul remains constant, the rest of the field shifts. What else would you expect from an old congressman who is more devoutly independent than 95% of his colleagues?
Current Headline: Ron Paul’s Anti-Fed Message Drives 2012 White House Bid Gaining Respect

6) Rick Perry Trending Up (Last Week: 8) If the Texas Governor wants to get into the field, he had better make his decision soon, but if he is in, he has a strong chance to make up ground quickly. He is not one to shy away from controversy or a political bout. He would at least make the debates very interesting if and when the gloves come off.
Current Headline: Rick Perry's "Tough-Talking" Texan Brand May Help Him In The Primaries

7) John Huntsman Trending Up (Last Week: 10) The good thing about being a candidate most voters have not heard of: you still have plenty of room and time to change their minds. Trying the John McCain model in 2012 though may be a tough, if not impossible, road to the nomination.
Current Headline: Selling John Huntsman, the Un-Republican

8) Tim Pawlenty Trending Down (Last Week: 4) If Iowa’s poll numbers were a boon for Bachmann, they were an absolute bust for Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. He has staked a lot in his neighbor state, and a poor showing there will all but doom his campaign. His constant focus on foreign policy in what looks to be a heavily domestic driven campaign is starting to seem bizarre as well.
Current Headling: Pawlenty Goes After "Isolationist" Republicans

9) Newt Gingrich Trending Down (Last Week: 7) Things just keep looking worse for Gingrich in 2012. His staff is abandoning him, his numbers are dropping, and the press and talk radio are killing him over attacking Paul Ryan’s fiscal plan. The end may be near for Newt.
Current Headline: Can Big Ideas Restart Newt's Engine?

10) Rick Santorum Trending Down (Last Week: 9) The unrepentant social conservative from PA keeps plugging away. It is a long, uphill climb for him to even seriously get into the conversation however. His best chance has been, and remains, to latch on as a potential VEEP.
Current Headline: Is Rick Santorum In Line For Vice President?

If you are interested in anything else in regards to these rankings, please leave a comment below or email me: zargoflaroche@yahoo.com

2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 4

Click Here for Prior Weeks Standings:

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3


1) Mitt Romney Trending Even (Last Week: 1)- While the field continues to morph below him, Romney maintains his numbers at the top in the polls and in fundraising. He has solid name recognition, the question is: are there enough moderate GOP primary voters out there to counteract the “anyone but Romney” hardline conservatives that will be organizing in force against him.
Current Headline: Mitt Romney: No Apologies on Climate Change Stance

2) Sarah Palin Trending Down (Last Week: 2)- A well publicized gaffe on colonial history sums up both how dedicated Palin’s core supporters are, and exactly why she will never garnish enough mainstream credentials for the nation’s highest office. Watch out for the emails being released soon in Alaska, it may sink her 2012 hopes once, and for all, if something earth-shattering comes out of those documents.
Current Headline: Sarah Palin and the Wikipedia War Over Paul Revere

3) Herman Cain Trending Up (Last Week: 10)- The former Pizza Exec skyrocketed up the polls and the rankings this week. He has stolen the tea party mantle right out of the hands of Paul and Bachman. Talk radio loves him, and he certainly qualifies for outsider status in the political game. The downside is any unknown quirks or scandals that have yet to come to the surface.
Current Headline: Herman Cain: A Longshot’s Steady Rise

4) Tim Pawlenty Trending Up (Last Week: 8)- With other candidates dropping out and blowing up, Pawlenty’s previous weakness, his steady, boring approach to the campaign, has come around to lift his ranking and status up. He could map out a path to the nomination with a strong showing in Iowa.
Current Headline: Pawlenty Bets Big on Reaganomics, but Some Economists Say It Won't Work

5) Ron Paul Trending Even (Last Week: 5)- Paul is who he is. He has a lockdown on this #5 spot because of his poll numbers, but the most authentically libertarian of the candidates will not be able to expand his base without compromising his values, something he will all but certainly refuse to do.
Current Headline: Candidate Ron Paul thinks GOP, Nation Moving Closer to His Libertarian Views

6) Michele Bachman Trending Up (Last Week: 7)- Bachman is looking more and more like she will make a serious run in 2012 as she organizes campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire. She is now starting to go hard at the political figure who most mirrors her own style and following, trying to separate her image from that of Sarah Palin.
Current Headline: Palin, Bachmann Camps Feud Over Who Gets To Be Defined As A 'Serious' Candidate

7) Newt Gingrich Trending Down (Last Week: 4)- After a totally disastrous showing on Meet the Press where he bashed Paul Ryan’s budget plan as “Rightwing Social Engineering” and an ill-timed European Luxury Vacation, Gingrich’s staff has mutinied on him. The Gingrich campaign has blown up like a cartoon cigar, right in his face. He is down, is he on the verge of being out?
Current Headline: Will Gingrich’s Staff Exodus Kill His 2012 Chances?

8) Rick Perry Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked)- Rumblings are that Perry is serious about getting into this race. Gingrich going down in flames could be the best thing to ever happen for the Texas Governor. Perry is a proven and polished campaigner. It should be interesting to see if he gets his bid off the ground.
Current Headline: Perry Watch: Is Rick Perry Playing Games With the Date of the 2012 Texas Primary For His Own Gain?

9) Rick Santorum Trending Down (Last Week: 6)- Santorum has officially announced his bid, but continues to stay in the bottom half of the polls and the rankings. It seems like he doesn’t have a lot of room to gain any traction. The former Senator from a trending blue swing State Commonwealth may be able to, at best, position himself well on the VEEP list with a good showing in the debates.
Current Headline: Rick Santorum: The Hapless Holy Warrior Starts Another Crusade

10) John Huntsman Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked)- Zero name recognition, but there is plenty of time for Huntsman to close that gap. And with the field above him full of flawed candidates and gaffe potential, the former ambassador may be able to crawl through the early campaign minefield unscathed and become a player in this contest.
Current Headline: Huntsman Hones a Dovish Foreign Policy Pitch to Republicans

If you are interested in anything else in regards to these rankings, please leave a comment below or email me: zargoflaroche@yahoo.com

2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 3

With potential unifying frontrunner, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee dropping out of consideration for the 2012 Republican Nomination for President of the United States, the race just got blown wide open. Who will benefit most from Huckabee dropping out? We have a new list of rankings and news stories below. Click here to view last week’s standings for comparison if you are interested in how this race has unfolded thus far.
I’ll be keeping the trend and the updated stories surrounding the candidates, if you are interested in anything else for these rankings please leave a comment below or email me: zargoflaroche@yahoo.com


1) Mitt Romney Trending Even (Last Week: 2)- With Huckabee dropping out, Romney reclaims his mantle as fatally flawed front runner. As Governor of Massachusetts, Romney signed a healthcare law similar to Obama’s with a mandate and voucher system. Evangelicals don’t trust Romney’s Mormon faith, and Fiscal Conservatives are skeptical as well. These are two crucial blocs that will be out in force in the 2012 primaries. He will not run well in Iowa or South Carolina in the early primaries, so he absolutely must win New Hampshire and try to parlay that into some sort of momentum. If Florida manages to get all its delegates seated due to its defiance of the established primary order, Romney has a chance to score a big victory there. It is a pretty tight needle for Romney to thread,and he is looking more and more like 2012's Rudy Giuliani
Headline: Why Romney's Authenticity Problem Won't Go Away


2) Sarah Palin Trending Up (Last Week: 3)- It is Palin who stands to benefit most from Huckabee’s exit, she now takes on the role of the candidate most likely to unite social and fiscal conservatives. If she is going to make a run, I feel she has wisely chosen to stay out of the headlines and in the background of this early speculation. When she is ready to jump in, she will do so headfirst and nobody in this field can move the needle as a fundraiser and garner as much media attention as Palin can.
Headline: Sarah Palin Supporters Dance On The Grave Of Mike Huckabee’s 2012 Presidential Run


3) Donald Trump Trending Down (Last Week: 4)- The initial buzz about the Real Estate Mogul and Reality TV star has died down, and I will continue to question his credentials and seriousness as a candidate until he does something to prove otherwise. His poll numbers move him up in the rankings by default, but I don’t think those polls will square with reality when, and if, the rubber ever really meets the road on a Trump candidacy.
Headline: Election 2012: Donald Trump Losing Favor Even Before He Enters the Race


4) Newt Gingrich Trending Up (Last Week: 6)- The former House Speaker rounds out the top 4, after which there is a serious drop off in the candidates below this spot. If he can grab the southern white males that Huckabee left behind, there is a chance for him to make a hard charge. His biggest liabilities are his temper and all the residual baggage that comes from his longtime stay in the media spotlight.
Headline: Newt Ditches Mandates Today After Defending Them ... Yesterday


5) Ron Paul Trending Even (Last Week: 5)- Paul will pretty much keep an even keel as an also run candidate. His core supporters are fiercely dedicated him, but he seems to lack the charisma and gumption to move up the ladder. He might be too honest of a man to get a nod at the Presidency. His best case scenario for this race is that his ideas transcend and go farther than his candidacy does.
Headline: Ron Paul: Why The Young Flock To An Old Idealist


6)Rick Santorum Trending Up (Last Week: 9)- If Huckabee’s socially conservative supporters are looking for a new standard bearer, the former Senator from Pennsylvania just might be their man. I’ll be watching closely to see if he scores an uptick in the polls and the underlying numbers as a result of Huck’s exit. If he doesn’t get a bounce, it may be time for him to seriously reconsider if he is a legitimate candidate.
Headline: Back Channels: A chat with Rick Santorum


7)Michelle Bachman Trending Up (Last Week: 8)- The firebrand congresswomen from suburban Minnesota is great at getting her name out there with soundbites. If the Tea Party momentum can swing behind her, she has a good chance to vault ahead into the top of the field at some point.
Headline: Minn. GOP Rep. Bachmann: From school board agitator to tea party hero unsettling 2012 campaign


8)Tim Pawlenty Trending Down (Last Week: 7)-Pawlenty needs to do some serious soul searching if he is to continue on toward the nomination. He needs some issue to rally around and take ownership of. Right now he is just treading water toward the bottom of the field, and is not even doing a good job of that.
Headline: A surprisingly early emphasis for Pawlenty campaign: foreign policy


9) Mitch Daniels Trending Even (Last Week: 10)-The Governor of Indiana is a smart man and good political operative, but can he get his name recognition up there and make enough of a splash to get into serious contention? As acting Governor he may end up taking a hard line on Labor issues in his State in order to garnish his reputation as a Conservative’s Conservative.
Headline: Daniels Vetoes Forfeiture Bill; Unconstitutional


10) Herman Cain Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked)- The conservative talk radio host and former pizza exec. is a Tea Party favorite and scored some strong points in an early Fox News debate, albeit with many of the major players still on the sidelines. He is gaining some momentum however, and it will be interesting to see how far his charge goes and if he registers any points in upcoming polls. Headline: Cain a smash at Georgia GOP convention

Will Huckabee Run in 2012?

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is an early favorite, on top or near the top of almost every poll for the 2012 GOP nomination for President. The problem is, we are not so sure if he is actually running. According to ABC News Senior Political Correspondent Johnathan Karl, the inside the beltway whispers are saying that Huck won't be running in 2012 and he has released his campaign staff from 08 in the crucial early primary States of Iowa and South Carolina to work for other candidates.
Huckabee is currently employed by the Fox News Channel and they have reportedly given him a one month deadline from today to either make a decision to run, or to stay on-air with the network. FNC had previously suspended the media contributions of Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as they became active in seeking the Republican nomination. Another potential runner, Sarah Palin still has maintained her on air work and has not been given any sort of deadline to decide on running that has been reported.

Will Huckabee Run in 2012?

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is an early favorite, on top or near the top of almost every poll for the 2012 GOP nomination for President. The problem is, we are not so sure if he is actually running. According to a ABC News Senior Political Corrospondent, the inside the beltway whispers are saying that Huck won't be running in 2012 and he has released his campaign staff from 08 in the crucial early primary States of Iowa and South Carolina to work for other candidates.
Huckabee is currently employed by the Fox News Channel and they have reportedly given him a one month deadline today to either make a decision to run, or to stay on-air with the network. FNC had previously suspened the active contributions of Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as they became active in seeking the Republican nomination. Another potential runner, Sarah Palin still has maintained her on air work and has not been given any sort of decision deadline that has been reported.

2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 2

Here is an update on the 2012 Republican Primary Horse Race, for last weeks rankings see the bottom of this post.
This week I also plan to start including trend indications and new headlines to go along with each candidate. If you guys have anything else you'd like to see included feel free to comment or email me about it.

1) Mike Huckabee Trending Up (Last Week: 2)- In a currently tight three way race, the Huckster edges just ahead of Mitt Romney and Donald Trump in the general poll. His underlying numbers among ardent conservatives secures his bump up to the one spot.
Current Headline: Huckabee tops South Carolina poll

2) Mitt Romney Trending Down (Last Week: 1)- His poll numbers show him in a tight race with Huckabee for the early lead, Romeny remains a polished and savvy pol, but minor gaffes like his 'peacetime' comment will be exploited and recycled by talk radio and the conservative web sphere, which are already philosophically against him.
Current Headline: Mitt Romney isn't at peace after his peacetime comment‎

3) Sarah Palin- Trending Steady (Last Week: 3)- The polarizing former Governor is struggling to maintain credibility, but her name recognition will keep her alive in this race if she does run. The best thing for her would be to stay in the background and bone up for the debates to show she is a ‘serious’ candidate.
Current Headline: Complaints aside, Sarah Palin dominates GOP media landscape

4)Donald Trump- Trending Up (Last Week: 4)- I still refuse to completely believe he is truly considering entering the race, but the polls have him practically tied for the lead with Huckabee. This doesn't quite square, because his rhetoric has been far right, while his support has come from the more moderate wings of the Party. His celebrity status will serve him well for now, but assuming this isn't just for publicity, I don't see him holding up to the actual rigors of a long campaign season.
Current Headline: Donald Trump moves on from birthers, now says President Obama wasn't qualified for Ivy League

5) Ron Paul- Trending Up (Last Week: 4)- The smart, anti-establishment choice will be a player in the debates, but don’t expect his final numbers to get much better then where they are at right now.
Current Headline: Ron Paul to Sean Hannity: Stop with Your Sharia!

6) Newt Gingrich Trending Down (Last Week: 7)- The former speakers numbers in the polls speak for themselves. His is a contender, but probably doesn’t have the stuff to be the champion and standard bearer for his party once again.
Current Headline: Newt Gingrich on why he became a Catholic

7) Tim Pawlenty Trending Down (Last Week: 6)- Poor Tim seems like a decent hardworking fellow, but even his home State press in Minnesota is coming to terms with his inability to excite on a national level.
Current Headline: Pawlenty campaign efforts not showing up in polling

8) Michelle Bachman- Trending Steady (Last Week: 8)- The Conservative Firebrand can stand to gain ground if Huckabee falters and/or Palin decides not to run. With Barbour dropping out, she becomes this blogs official darkhorse candidate. She will at least make a lot of noise before (and after) this race is over.
Current Headline: Bachmann worries about ability to block debt-ceiling increase

9) Rick Santorum Trending Up (Last Week: 10)- The favorite son of social conservatives is still in the background, but has a chance to vault up, especially if the economy improves and the GOP needs to tact a different course of attack on Obama to drum up the grassroots.
Current Headline: Santorum’s Frothy Fox News Sunday

10) Mitch Daniels Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked) With his close friend Haley Barbour officially dropping out, the former Indiana Gov sneaks into the top 10. His numbers on level with Santorum, but in his support among the grassroots there is some ground to make up.
Current Headline: Does Haley Barbour's opt out mean Mitch Daniels will opt in?

The Ongoing NHL 1st Round Series + 2012 GOP Presidential Candidates

As we wind on through the primary round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, we also are on course for the determination of the 2012 Republican Party nominee for President. Both races have frontrunners, darkhorses, underdogs, and those barely hanging onto hope.

*For some reason the Phoenix Coyotes remind me a lot of Rick Santorum. Both face remarkably daunting odds, mainstream media irrelevance, and too little support from their home base. Yet I get a feeling for some reason that we have not heard the last from either of them. They are both spunky and plucky, so I wouldn’t be surprised if either carries on the fight longer than anybody is anticipating before ultimately falling short. At least if Santorum doesn’t grab the nomination there is no threat of him being forced to permanently move himself and his family to Winnipeg, Manitoba.

*The Western Conference is pretty much setup for the next round, at least in my head. I think the Detroit Redwings will ultimately dispose of the Coyotes, there is no way the San Jose Sharks will lose to the LA Kings, and the Nashville Predators/Anaheim Duck series is a tossup, but the winner will end up trekking up to Vancouver for the first game of Round 2. That is because the Canucks have totally wiped the floor with the defending Champion Chicago Blackhawks. I expected this would finally be the year that Roberto Luongo and the Sedin twins would break the “Curse of Chelsea Dagger,” but I certainly didn’t think they would be up 3 games to none and poised to sweep the current Cup holders out of the 1st round. Regardless, the 2nd round is shaping up as Canucks vs. Ducks/Predators and Sharks vs. Redwings. Those should both involve some very good hockey, and take heart San Jose fans; if the Canucks can beat the Blackhawks maybe this is finally the year your team can get over its 2nd round jinx. I won’t make official predictions yet for a round that hasn’t even started, but I have a feeling the best Twin combination in the league will be scraping up Octopi off the ice as their opponents raise (skate away from) the Clarence Campbell Bowl.

*Is Donald Trump a for real candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, or is this just a publicity stunt? The poll numbers actually look good for him right now, but I can’t imagine that he will seriously delve into a run here. He has a more than a few skeletons in his closet, and much more to lose than to gain in what will inevitably be an unsuccessful bid. He came out firing with the “Birther” card, openly questioning President Obama’s citizenship. That has made him a polarizing figure among the Tea Party crowd, who appreciate that incredible message, but in the end I cannot see them getting behind the epitome of elaborately suited corporate executives as their standard bearer. Donald Trump is about as far from being Joe the Plumber as I am from being Bob Woodward

*Tim Thomas is not a playoff goalie. He’s just not. His unorthodox style suits him well in the regular season when you only play the Boston Bruins once or twice a month. When he gets into a playoff series however the opposing team will eventually figure him out and crack him. That is why the Montreal Canadiens will get by the Bru-Crew in the 1st round. That and because, well they are the Habs and will always come out on top over Boston. Also, how on this green earth did Zdeno Chara miss game two due to “dehydration?” It seems to me that the Bruins are either hiding an injury or he must have been ridiculously sick to have missed such a crucial playoff game. There is no way a professional training staff would let their Captain miss a game of that magnitude because of lack of fluids.

* The Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning has been a fascinating series because of the contrasting styles of play. Pittsburgh is a strong forechecking even strength team who plays best when the game rolls along for extended periods of five on five action. Tampa has been dominant on special teams, lighting up the scoreboard on their powerplay and completely shutting down the Pens turns with the man advantage, and setting up a stifling 1-3-1 trap when they get in front. The first goal is extra crucial in games for this series, because both teams play much better with the lead then coming from behind. It’s been pretty even hockey so far, and if Tampa can hold serve at home in game four it becomes a 3 game series where the Pens have the two home games. It should go right down to the wire.

*Finally, here are my initial top 10 rankings for the GOP nomination for 2012:
1) Mitt Romney- He’s the front runner for now, but I don’t think he will be there the winner in the end

2) Mike Huckabee- The former Gov of Arkansas is my pick from right here to take the nomination. Solid mix of tea party cred without seeming like a far right ideologue. He will get the crucial support of the Southern Evangelicals as well.

3) Sarah Palin- The most polarizing figure on the GOP landscape, but her supporters will be the most energetic of any candidates if she does end up running.

4) Ron/Rand Paul- Whichever one of them ends up seeking the platform will split the tea support with Palin. They don’t have her charisma, but have more intellectual credibility. Unfortunately that is not what you need to become President.

5) Donald Trump- I’m stunned he is even on this list, yet alone so high, but if he does run his name recognition alone will make him a force to be reckoned with.

6) Tim Pawlenty- Very non-controversial former Governor of Minnesota. Very vanilla and bland candidate.

7) Newt Gingrich- The former Majority Leader was the architect of the 1994 wave and revolution. The firebrand probably has too much negative baggage to be a serious contender for 2012.

8) Michelle Bachman- Is great for making outrageous statements for Cable clip shows, will carry some favor with Tea votes, but nothing close to enough to crack the top 5.

9) Haley Barbour- The Governor of Mississippi has been called one of the smartest pols in the Republican Party. It will take quite a bit of maneuvering for him to get up this list, but don’t write him off as a darkhorse.

10) Rick Santorum- The former Senator from Pennsylvania will carry some support among the religious right and is a tireless campainger. Is he angling for a VEEP nod coming from a crucial battle ground State?