Here is an update on the 2012 Republican Primary Horse Race, for last weeks rankings see the bottom of this post.
This week I also plan to start including trend indications and new headlines to go along with each candidate. If you guys have anything else you'd like to see included feel free to comment or email me about it.
1) Mike Huckabee Trending Up (Last Week: 2)- In a currently tight three way race, the Huckster edges just ahead of Mitt Romney and Donald Trump in the general poll. His underlying numbers among ardent conservatives secures his bump up to the one spot.
Current Headline: Huckabee tops South Carolina poll
2) Mitt Romney Trending Down (Last Week: 1)- His poll numbers show him in a tight race with Huckabee for the early lead, Romeny remains a polished and savvy pol, but minor gaffes like his 'peacetime' comment will be exploited and recycled by talk radio and the conservative web sphere, which are already philosophically against him.
Current Headline: Mitt Romney isn't at peace after his peacetime comment
3) Sarah Palin- Trending Steady (Last Week: 3)- The polarizing former Governor is struggling to maintain credibility, but her name recognition will keep her alive in this race if she does run. The best thing for her would be to stay in the background and bone up for the debates to show she is a ‘serious’ candidate.
Current Headline: Complaints aside, Sarah Palin dominates GOP media landscape
4)Donald Trump- Trending Up (Last Week: 4)- I still refuse to completely believe he is truly considering entering the race, but the polls have him practically tied for the lead with Huckabee. This doesn't quite square, because his rhetoric has been far right, while his support has come from the more moderate wings of the Party. His celebrity status will serve him well for now, but assuming this isn't just for publicity, I don't see him holding up to the actual rigors of a long campaign season.
Current Headline: Donald Trump moves on from birthers, now says President Obama wasn't qualified for Ivy League
5) Ron Paul- Trending Up (Last Week: 4)- The smart, anti-establishment choice will be a player in the debates, but don’t expect his final numbers to get much better then where they are at right now.
Current Headline: Ron Paul to Sean Hannity: Stop with Your Sharia!
6) Newt Gingrich Trending Down (Last Week: 7)- The former speakers numbers in the polls speak for themselves. His is a contender, but probably doesn’t have the stuff to be the champion and standard bearer for his party once again.
Current Headline: Newt Gingrich on why he became a Catholic
7) Tim Pawlenty Trending Down (Last Week: 6)- Poor Tim seems like a decent hardworking fellow, but even his home State press in Minnesota is coming to terms with his inability to excite on a national level.
Current Headline: Pawlenty campaign efforts not showing up in polling
8) Michelle Bachman- Trending Steady (Last Week: 8)- The Conservative Firebrand can stand to gain ground if Huckabee falters and/or Palin decides not to run. With Barbour dropping out, she becomes this blogs official darkhorse candidate. She will at least make a lot of noise before (and after) this race is over.
Current Headline: Bachmann worries about ability to block debt-ceiling increase
9) Rick Santorum Trending Up (Last Week: 10)- The favorite son of social conservatives is still in the background, but has a chance to vault up, especially if the economy improves and the GOP needs to tact a different course of attack on Obama to drum up the grassroots.
Current Headline: Santorum’s Frothy Fox News Sunday
10) Mitch Daniels Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked) With his close friend Haley Barbour officially dropping out, the former Indiana Gov sneaks into the top 10. His numbers on level with Santorum, but in his support among the grassroots there is some ground to make up.
Current Headline: Does Haley Barbour's opt out mean Mitch Daniels will opt in?
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