GOP Nomination Standings: Onward toward SoCarl

New Hampshire was pretty much decided before the votes were even cast in the Republican race to become that party’s nominee for President. Barring a colossal upset, Mitt Romney was going to win his New England backyard and he needed a big win to move the ball forward after squeaking out a barn burner in Iowa. His win was indeed huge, and Romney became the 1^st non-incumbent Republican to capture both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Here are the numbers with 95% of the votes counted so far:

Mitt Romney: 95,669 39.4%

Ron Paul: 55,455 22.8%

Jon Huntsman: 40,903 16.8%

Newt Gingrich: 22,921 9.4%

Rick Santorum: 22,708 9.3%

Rick Perry: 1,710 0.7%

Buddy Roemer: 918 0.38%

Renegade Candidate Ron Paul finished significantly higher than expected with a huge influx of independents and young people turning out for the extreme libertarian. Paul has claimed to be in this race for the long haul and will take each delegate he collects to the convention. You can bet his supporters will be as disruptive as possible to the eventual establishment nominee. His post-Primary speech was rife with energy and his followers took over trending topics on twitter for a time last night. Enthusiasm is never a problem with Ron Paul voters.

Jon Huntsman had a respectable showing in 3^rd place with 16.8% of the vote, but there are big questions of where the former Ambassador can make his next stand after putting so much effort into New Hampshire. Unlike Paul, he has not been cultivating much of a national base of support, and although he has vowed that his ticket has been punched to South Carolina, I can’t see him making much of an impact among the Southern voters there.

The two men most likely to still unite a Conservative challenge to Romney’s nomination both came in a little bit under expectations last night with Newt Gingrich finishing in 4^th place with 9.4% of the vote, and Rick Santorum sliding in right behind him at 9.3%, only a few hundred votes separating the two. It is actually good news for Romney that neither of these candidates were able to even top Mike Huckabee’s totals from 2008 in this race.

Rick Perry meanwhile was persona non grata in the Granite State. He couldn’t even crack the 1% mark and for all his Texas oil millions, he barely squeezed out a margin about virtually unknown candidate Buddy Roemer from Louisiana. It seems like all momentum seeped out of the Perry campaign months ago with an unreal amount of debate gaffes. He is now a shallow hull of a candidate, only being propped up by leftover funds from the period when he entered the race with tons of energy and cash influx. Don’t expect to see him in this race much longer.

GOP Nomination Standings: New Hampshire Primary day

Today the rubber hits the road in the New Hampshire Primary.

From what I can see so far, this State is definitely Mitt Romney's to lose. Coming off a razor thin win in Iowa against the surprisingly surging Rick Santorum, Romney certainly needs a more significant margin of victory to solidify his status as front runner coming out of the Granite State. The word “inevitable” is starting to find its way around Romney’s path to the nomination, but no matter how well he does in New Hampshire, he will not be able to sow things up in this 1st in the nation primary.

The Anti-Romney forces have pretty much conceded the New England early battleground to him, and plan to make their last, best pitch to the much more stridently conservative citizens of South Carolina. Rick Perry is already there, hoping that some Southern Home Cookin’ will suit him better than the bitterly independent residents of small town Bedford, Berlin, and Barrington.

Jon Huntsman has staked almost his entire campaign on New Hampshire and a poor showing here would all but sink his aspirations for the Oval Office. He has had a bit of a mini-surge recently, but his followers hoping for a Santorum-in-Iowa like showing are probably not basing their expectations within reality.

Speaking of Santorum, he has ridden the wave of momentum coming out of his stunning surprise in the Hawkeye State with some savvy, raising quite a bit of cash which is like lifeblood to these campaigns, but New Hampshire is not exactly fertile ground for his brand of conservatism. Mike Huckabee won Iowa outright in 2008 on the back of evangelicals, but couldn’t crack 11% in this primary. Santorum should expect about the same number. He needs to somehow convince a lot of Newt Gingrich supporters that he is actually their man to beat Romney in South Carolina in order for him to extend the contest much further.

And of course Ron Paul is going to be in this thing for the long haul. I am more and more convinced his strategy is not to win the nomination outright, but to force the eventual nominees hand by collecting enough delegates to get some of his stridently held ideals into the platform for the General Election. We shall see if the hardline libertarian handcuffs the Republicans or opens the gates to infuse the enthusiasm of his demographically dissimilar base into the usually staid convention halls of the Grand Old Party.

It should be an interesting night to watch the results come in, not so much for the eventual winner, but to see who the real losers are. At this point it is all about  fundraising, media spin, and campaign narrative as the actual delegate count will be rather insignificant from this early race.
Here are the numbers I expect to see, and if any of these candidates come in +/- 5% or more from the expected # it can be spun as a big win (or loss) for their campaign:

Mitt Romney: 40%
Jon Huntsman: 18%
Ron Paul: 16%
Rick Santorum: 11%
Newt Gingrich: 10%
Rick Perry: 2%
.

2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 5

Click Here for Prior Weeks Standings:

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Michelle Bachmann has vaulted up from a strong showing on a national debate, some positive press, and a new Iowa poll showing her nipping at the heels of the Romney campaign. She will be listed as trending up, but really she has skyrocketed from potential tea party darkhorse to household name seemingly overnight. She has some serious, serious momentum behind her and if her fundraising numbers come up strong, she can easily overtake Romney for the #1 spot. But not quite yet. Let’s see where this all is heading before we start to do a state by state breakdown of her vs. Obama.

I know there is some Rudy Giulliani speculation out there. I don’t think he will run, and if he does run, I don’t think he’ll put in enough effort to win. Rudy is still a recognizable name-brand in some circles, but an empty and hollow one in proper context. He might have squeezed into the 11th spot on this list if I had one, but I feel that the 10 folks listed above are either more serious about running (Santorum and Pawlenty) or have a better chance to win the nomination if they do jump in (Palin and Perry), so the former NYC mayor remains outside my core group of candidates.

This is also the 1st time since I started these rankings that my list consists of the same 10 candidates as the last list, I think that is a sign that as we get into the summer that the field is solidifying. Anyone seriously thinking of getting involved, such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, better start organizing teams quickly, before this train leaves the station, if they want to have a legitimate chance to win. History shows that late coming ‘saviors’ to the party get a quick boost media fueled spike, but fizzle out as the logistics of being months behind in fund raising and ground organization ultimately dooms them.


1) Mitt Romney Trending Steady(Last Week: 1) Lost in all the Bachmann hoopla is the fact that frontrunner Romney still won a plurality of the Iowa poll which vaulted her into the primetime conversation. His money numbers can be expected to blow smaller ships out of the water. He got to this point for a good reason, and he may be vulnerable, but that doesn’t mean he will be an easy knock off.
Current Headline: Mitt Romney, Boring Genius?

2) Michelle Bachmann Trending Up (Last Week: 6) Things sure are looking up for Bachmann. It was obvious that there was plenty of room at the top of the field, and she surged into the vacuum to challenge Romney, whom hardline conservatives see as weak and compromising. Can she unite and hold the ‘Anyone but Romney’ voters all under one tent?
Current Headline: Michele Bachmann's Moment: Can She Sustain It?

3) Herman Cain Trending Steady (Last Week: 3) Bachmann halted Cain’s advance to a dead stand still. He can really go either way from here, but the potential upswing has been blunted by the space that Bachmann now occupies. He has to be smart and prove his business sense can translate to political savvy to stay this high in the running.
Current Headline: Black GOP Candidate Missing Right Words

4) Sarah Palin Trending Down (Last Week: 2) I’m beginning to really believe Palin when she says that she isn’t sure if she is running for president or not. Everything seems to indicate to me that Palin is just winging and ad-libbing her way through this summer. She has proven to be a loose cannon in the past, so who really knows with the former Alaska Gov. But I don’t think you do as many bus tours as she is without at least making a run. With Palin though, anything is possible.
Current Headline: Not a Whisper From Palin

5) Ron Paul Trending Steady (Last Week: 5) Paul has become the dividing line between those in the hunt and those in trouble. If you are above Paul, you are in serious contention. Fall below and it may be time to rethink some strategies. Paul remains constant, the rest of the field shifts. What else would you expect from an old congressman who is more devoutly independent than 95% of his colleagues?
Current Headline: Ron Paul’s Anti-Fed Message Drives 2012 White House Bid Gaining Respect

6) Rick Perry Trending Up (Last Week: 8) If the Texas Governor wants to get into the field, he had better make his decision soon, but if he is in, he has a strong chance to make up ground quickly. He is not one to shy away from controversy or a political bout. He would at least make the debates very interesting if and when the gloves come off.
Current Headline: Rick Perry's "Tough-Talking" Texan Brand May Help Him In The Primaries

7) John Huntsman Trending Up (Last Week: 10) The good thing about being a candidate most voters have not heard of: you still have plenty of room and time to change their minds. Trying the John McCain model in 2012 though may be a tough, if not impossible, road to the nomination.
Current Headline: Selling John Huntsman, the Un-Republican

8) Tim Pawlenty Trending Down (Last Week: 4) If Iowa’s poll numbers were a boon for Bachmann, they were an absolute bust for Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. He has staked a lot in his neighbor state, and a poor showing there will all but doom his campaign. His constant focus on foreign policy in what looks to be a heavily domestic driven campaign is starting to seem bizarre as well.
Current Headling: Pawlenty Goes After "Isolationist" Republicans

9) Newt Gingrich Trending Down (Last Week: 7) Things just keep looking worse for Gingrich in 2012. His staff is abandoning him, his numbers are dropping, and the press and talk radio are killing him over attacking Paul Ryan’s fiscal plan. The end may be near for Newt.
Current Headline: Can Big Ideas Restart Newt's Engine?

10) Rick Santorum Trending Down (Last Week: 9) The unrepentant social conservative from PA keeps plugging away. It is a long, uphill climb for him to even seriously get into the conversation however. His best chance has been, and remains, to latch on as a potential VEEP.
Current Headline: Is Rick Santorum In Line For Vice President?

If you are interested in anything else in regards to these rankings, please leave a comment below or email me: zargoflaroche@yahoo.com

2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 4

Click Here for Prior Weeks Standings:

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3


1) Mitt Romney Trending Even (Last Week: 1)- While the field continues to morph below him, Romney maintains his numbers at the top in the polls and in fundraising. He has solid name recognition, the question is: are there enough moderate GOP primary voters out there to counteract the “anyone but Romney” hardline conservatives that will be organizing in force against him.
Current Headline: Mitt Romney: No Apologies on Climate Change Stance

2) Sarah Palin Trending Down (Last Week: 2)- A well publicized gaffe on colonial history sums up both how dedicated Palin’s core supporters are, and exactly why she will never garnish enough mainstream credentials for the nation’s highest office. Watch out for the emails being released soon in Alaska, it may sink her 2012 hopes once, and for all, if something earth-shattering comes out of those documents.
Current Headline: Sarah Palin and the Wikipedia War Over Paul Revere

3) Herman Cain Trending Up (Last Week: 10)- The former Pizza Exec skyrocketed up the polls and the rankings this week. He has stolen the tea party mantle right out of the hands of Paul and Bachman. Talk radio loves him, and he certainly qualifies for outsider status in the political game. The downside is any unknown quirks or scandals that have yet to come to the surface.
Current Headline: Herman Cain: A Longshot’s Steady Rise

4) Tim Pawlenty Trending Up (Last Week: 8)- With other candidates dropping out and blowing up, Pawlenty’s previous weakness, his steady, boring approach to the campaign, has come around to lift his ranking and status up. He could map out a path to the nomination with a strong showing in Iowa.
Current Headline: Pawlenty Bets Big on Reaganomics, but Some Economists Say It Won't Work

5) Ron Paul Trending Even (Last Week: 5)- Paul is who he is. He has a lockdown on this #5 spot because of his poll numbers, but the most authentically libertarian of the candidates will not be able to expand his base without compromising his values, something he will all but certainly refuse to do.
Current Headline: Candidate Ron Paul thinks GOP, Nation Moving Closer to His Libertarian Views

6) Michele Bachman Trending Up (Last Week: 7)- Bachman is looking more and more like she will make a serious run in 2012 as she organizes campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire. She is now starting to go hard at the political figure who most mirrors her own style and following, trying to separate her image from that of Sarah Palin.
Current Headline: Palin, Bachmann Camps Feud Over Who Gets To Be Defined As A 'Serious' Candidate

7) Newt Gingrich Trending Down (Last Week: 4)- After a totally disastrous showing on Meet the Press where he bashed Paul Ryan’s budget plan as “Rightwing Social Engineering” and an ill-timed European Luxury Vacation, Gingrich’s staff has mutinied on him. The Gingrich campaign has blown up like a cartoon cigar, right in his face. He is down, is he on the verge of being out?
Current Headline: Will Gingrich’s Staff Exodus Kill His 2012 Chances?

8) Rick Perry Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked)- Rumblings are that Perry is serious about getting into this race. Gingrich going down in flames could be the best thing to ever happen for the Texas Governor. Perry is a proven and polished campaigner. It should be interesting to see if he gets his bid off the ground.
Current Headline: Perry Watch: Is Rick Perry Playing Games With the Date of the 2012 Texas Primary For His Own Gain?

9) Rick Santorum Trending Down (Last Week: 6)- Santorum has officially announced his bid, but continues to stay in the bottom half of the polls and the rankings. It seems like he doesn’t have a lot of room to gain any traction. The former Senator from a trending blue swing State Commonwealth may be able to, at best, position himself well on the VEEP list with a good showing in the debates.
Current Headline: Rick Santorum: The Hapless Holy Warrior Starts Another Crusade

10) John Huntsman Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked)- Zero name recognition, but there is plenty of time for Huntsman to close that gap. And with the field above him full of flawed candidates and gaffe potential, the former ambassador may be able to crawl through the early campaign minefield unscathed and become a player in this contest.
Current Headline: Huntsman Hones a Dovish Foreign Policy Pitch to Republicans

If you are interested in anything else in regards to these rankings, please leave a comment below or email me: zargoflaroche@yahoo.com

2012 GOP Standings Update: Trump Drops Out

Another potential leader has dropped out of the 2012 Republican horserace. Before I could finish proof-reading my updated standings from this morning, Donald Trump announced that he would follow Mike Huckabee as the second major candidate in a few days to publically drop out of consideration.
Alot of folks in the media and inside DC never really took Trump's noise about running all too seriously, and although early polling numbers indicated some name recognition advantage and support, Trump never really got serious about laying the groundwork for a grueling primary campaign. It seems like those trips up to New Hampshire and sounding off about Obama's birth certificate and Ivy League qualifications was nothing more then another publicity stunt by 'The Donald.'
I'm not going to re-rank the entire list again for the nomination, just assume everyone else below Trump has bumped up a spot, and slide former Ambassador to China John Huntsman into the 10 spot. The big 3 now consists of Romney, Palin, and Gingrich for those still in consideration. All three have major flaws though, so the door is now WIDE open for a darkhorse to grab the public (and Tea Party) imagination.