Monday Morning Notebook (04.11.V5-1)

*The US Government averted a Federal partial shutdown that would have been short sighted, harmful, and done nothing to deal with our Country's long term issues. If you want to applaud barely functional govt. go ahead, but I will continue my plan to fix Congress after a short delay to write about the upcoming NHL playoffs.

*Cory Clouston was fired as head coach of the Ottawa Senators, but GM/past and future coach Bryan Murray was extended 3 years by the team, which is a bit of a surprise. I think the Sens are a club screaming for new blood and a fresh approach. Murray should have been canned as well.

*The African Union, an organization that Muammar Gaddafi has worked well with in the past, is trying to broker a cease fire in the Libyan Civil War. Rebel command in Benghazi counters that nothing short of Gaddafi stepping down will bring an end to this conflict.
*Jacques Lemaire will go back into retirement and will not come back to coach the New Jersey Devils next season. Lemaire almost rallied the Devils to a miraculous playoff apperance after a putrid start to the season, but fell short. No tears will be shed here for the loss to Swamp Hockey.

*Peter DeBoer was also let go by the Florida Panthers, who have been without any clear direction for years. They need something big to change the direction of that franchise in South Florida.

*Congrats to the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs on winning their 1st NCAA hockey national title, beating the Michigan Wolverines in overtime for the championship game.

Monday Morning Notebook (04.05.V4-3)

*The US is getting ready to end combat missions flying over Libya in the next few days. Is this a "mission accomplished" moment like we had in Iraq, only to be followed by escalating violence, or is the current President really ready to walk away from this fight and wash his hands of whatever the results are of the ongoing civil war in that North African nation? Barrack Obama should be credited with preventing a near certain mass murder in Benghazi, and NATO forces, including the US I would assume, will continue to moniter and enforce the UN sanctioned 'No-Fly Zone.' The ultimate effect of this effort on the ground is far from certain in Libya however. Muammar Gaddafi and the Rebel Forces in Libya are basically fighting to a stand still and neither will seem to be able to 'finish the job' of disposing of the other.

*After watching the Philadelphia Flyers-New York Rangers game yesterday, I can't help but feel that the Flyers are really on their heels backing into the playoffs. Something doesn’t quite seem to be clicking right with that team right now, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a tough time getting out of the first round, especially against a team with a tough goalie like the Rangers or the Buffalo Sabres. I feel the Washington Capitals will win the #1 overall seed and be the team to beat in the East. They have been on fire since adding a few pieces at the trade deadline, and have the most complete healthy team in the Conference right now.

*The Budget Showdown will be dragging on in Congress for another week of D.C. melodrama. Will this be the week that Senate Democrats, President Obama, and whatever caucus Speaker of the House John Boehner can muster will come to an agreement on the temporary budget for the remainder of the fiscal year through September, so that they can get onto bickering about a long term budget solution for the future years? A Government Shutdown, such as occurred in 1995, is looming if a temporary solution cannot be reached. Of course most of the 'essential' functions of the Federal Government would still be funded, but it would be a black eye in the face of a spawning economic recovery. Something that is important to note: this fight is not the Big One. The argument (and an ongoing simultaneous debate that will also focus on the Country’s Debt limit) that occurs this week will not do one single iota to fix our Nation’s long term fiscal crisis. The real strong leadership that the American people crave will be those who dare to crack open the “untouchable” issues of Social Security and Medicare. The current debate over non-defense discretionary funding will do nothing to alleviate the big picture issues surrounding those programs, and can only hurt us in the short term economic forecasts, because cuts in spending will mean cuts in jobs. It is that simple folks. The British are learning this to their peril as their economic recovery sputters out in the face of large cut backs in spending in the name of fiscal austerity. There is some simple math out there that shows that cutting government spending reduces the employment situation for workers on the ground. Eric DuVall of the Tonawanda News breaks this down very precisely and succinctly in his editorial piece yesterday:
“This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. The Republican Party’s official position on job creation is this: If the government lays off workers on a mass scale, it will help employment.
How is this possible? Someone in the House GOP caucus has missed their calling as a fantasy novel writer, for starters.” Read the rest here

*It became official over the weekend, the New Jersey Devils will be missing the NHL’s postseason for the 1st time since 1996. Count me as one who will certainly not weep for the absence of the Devils in this year’s playoffs. They are the organization that is more responsible, in my eyes, than any other for bogging down the game with their neutral zone shutdown “swamp hockey” that became the trendy defensive style of play from the Mid 1990’s to the early 2000s. They may have won 3 Stanley Cups in 9 years with this accursed style of play, but have only won 2 playoff games beyond the 1st round since they hoisted the Holy Grail against the Anaheim (then Mighty) Ducks in 03. So this has been a team and a style of hockey in decline for the better part of a decade now. Hopefully 2011 will be remembered as the year swamp hockey was finally laid to rest.

*Former President Bill Clinton has suggested in public that the world should furnish arms and supplies to the Rebel Forces in Libya. Privately I guarantee he knows that something of that sort is already going on. This entire intervention in Libya has a very Clintonesque feel to it, and with his wife represented in the Administration as Secretary of State, it seems very likely to me that she is pulling some of the old levers that Bill left behind in the International Community. To think that the two are not cooperating and interconnecting their influence and powers to get Gadaffi out of Libya would be foolish indeed.

Mass Movement Continue to Rock the Arab World

It started with a fruit vendor in small villiage of Tunisia. Sick of government bureaucrats making his life miserable, he poured gasoline all over himself and set himself ablaze in front of the local municipal building. It was the pebble that started an avalanche of mass protest across the region against totalitarian governence. Tomorrow could be another big day, Libya is engulfed in a full fledged civil war with international intervention. Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain all face serious potential protests. Saudi Arabia and Iran are at a low simmer. It should be interesting to see what unfolds as thousands go out for Friday prayers. This is the biggest shakeup in the Arab world since WWII. How things play out this Spring will have effects for decades on oil prices, global human rights, and terrorist threats.

Obama should put Libya engagement before Congress

The international mission in Libya seems to be extending well beyond enforceing a UN mandated 'no-fly zone.' President Obama has come out and stated that it is U.S. policy that Muammar Gaddafi has lost legitimacy and should go. When the President has made such a declaration and has the military involved in targeting forces supporting the leader to be disposed, it is clear and obvious that we are engaged in an all out war in a foreign land. That being the circumstances as they are, Obama would be gravely remiss not to put this matter before a vote in Congress for authorization to carry out these actions. As Commander in Cheif he has some wiggle room to function without Congress, but the longer this goes without a vote, the more it strays into a major violation of the seperation of powers. Even as President of the United States, Obama is still legally obligated to abide by the Constitution he has sworn to protect and uphold.

Monday Morning Notebook (03.21.V3-3)

*The US lead an all out air assault over the weekend on Muammar Gaddafi's forces in the Libyan civil war. The UN resolution gives nations carte blanche to do whatever is necessary in order to stop Gaddafi from attacking civilians in his bid to retain power. This is a bold gambit by the Obama Administration to spread and cultivate the new found freedom and Mass Movement power in North Africa. The attempt to so audaciously spread core American values is a grand goal, but is military intervention really the best route to do so? One can only hope for the best results from this adventure for US forces and sincerely wish them success in their mission. The prudence of this undertaking must be brought into question in light of the already ongoing conflicts our all-volunteer military is currently serving in. It is not to be suggested that the (so far) limited engagement airstrikes will truly strain our armed forces readiness. As we saw in Iraq however, not only the worst case, but sometimes totally unpredictable scenarios unfold from these actions. It would be a shame if a decade from now we are looking back with regret on this moment of well intentioned intervention because of these unforeseen demons yet to be encountered. The cause against Gaddafi however is just, and hopefully in this case justice prevails for the people of Libya, the people of America, and the people of the world.

*Matt Cooke's hit yesterday on Ryan McDonough of the New York Rangers was ill-timed, dirty, and really selfish when you consider the situation both within the game that was in progress and efforts at large by his team, and others, to eliminate these cheap shots from the game. The fact that McDonough was okay should be no consolation to anyone with the power to determine Cooke's fate. The Penguins should step up and send their own message to Cooke that these actions will not be tolerated on top of the already certain forthcoming league discipline. The GM and coaching staff of the Penguins must also take into serious consideration whether Cooke is a potential liability come playoff time with these increasingly frequent unnecessary hits that cost his team significant penalty minutes.

*Yemen seems to be the next Country in line after Libya to go down the road toward political freedom through mass movement protest. The army today announced they will support the protesters legitimate complaints in that nation, and several of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s administration members are also turning against him quickly. Saleh, who could be out of power by tomorrow, has been an ally of the United States in trying to root Al Qaeda out of his Country, but perhaps a more free, open, and prosperous society in Yemen will reduce the recruiting base of the terrorist forces in that region long term. Yemen is the most poor and desolate Countries in the Arabian Peninsula, and one of the most beleaguered in the world. It would be the first Country outside the geographical barrier of Africa to succumb to the protest movement that has rocked the Arab world.

Another Twist in Libya

Libyan Foreign Minister declares that forces under control of Muammar Gaddafi will comply with a cease fire to come into compliance with UN Resolution. Is this a head fake to delay implementation of a no-fly zone by Western forces or a genuine case of the threat of force ending a conflict? Reports from the ground would indicate that the fighting is continuing, so it seems that the UN will have to interject itself into the civil war in that Country. Great Britan, France, and now Canada have all decared that they will join in operations to enforce the UN resolution.

UN Authorizes Action in Libya

The UN Security Council past a resolution today approving swift military action against Gaddafi's forces in Libya. A no fly zone is expected to be enforced by the United States, France, and Great Britan. This was a big diplomatic win for the Western block on the Security Council, I'm not sure what they had to do to get Russia and China to go along, but they did a good job getting them to sign off on the resolution. My take is that this will be a truly international operation and not a US led force with token European support. I'm not sure stategically how much this effort will help rebel forces on the ground, but it should at least re-moralize and re-energize a resistance movement that has been in retreat over the past week.

Monday Morning Notebook (03.07.V1-4)

*On the international scene, Libya remains the global hotspot that everyone is watching, but nobody is doing much of anything about. Muammar Gaddafi, the long standing tyrant, remains in security control of Tripoli, with his blue shirted thugs enacting violent repression against protesters. Those in revolt from his regime remain in power in Benghazi and the Eastern side of the Country, and the two forces are conflicting in the lightly populated, but oil rich, middle sections of Libya. There is little doubt that Gaddafi has initiated violent assaults upon his own people using terrible weapons of mass warfare to quell internal discord. The international community has done little to stop him from doing so, outside of sending much needed humanitarian aide to the Eastern border of the Country where streams of refuges are fleeing the violence. This inaction by the rest of the world may be a course of prudent wisdom from an international affairs standpoint, but it certainly leaves those seeking a more free and fair society in Libya at the diabolical whims of a violent madman who will stop at nothing to retain power. The situation has reached a point where it is already functioning as a low level civil war, and if we have learned anything from misadventures in Iraq, it is that these sectarian styled conflicts are not often resolved quickly or peacefully, and outside intervention may do more harm than good at this point.

*Ryan Callahan had the game of his life on Sunday afternoon as the New York Rangers whitewashed the Eastern Conference leading Philadelphia Flyers, who all of a sudden seem eminently beatable after dominating the first five months of the season. Goalies in Philadelphia tend to thaw out as the birds return and the flowers bloom, and April, May, and June are the harshest months for Orange and Black clad netminders. Henrik Lundqvist meanwhile remains a rock solid rubber stopper for the Blueshirts and hasn’t let up more than 3 goals since January 25th, the thinking here is that he may be able to vault the Rangers into darkhorse Cup contenders this Spring.

*The US Senate will take up two proposed bills to provide funding for the rest of the federal government's fiscal year, the GOP passed House Bill, and the New Democrat compromise plan. Both cut billions from President Obama's budget, but neither is predicted to bridge the 60 vote threshold needed to get out of the Senate. They are however expected to lay out the groundwork for future debate and compromise.

*The New Jersey Devils continue their most unlikely of quests for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, which if they could claw their way into, would be one of the most incredible in-season turn around stories in the history of professional sports. I still believe they will burn out from playing each and every game as if it is the 7th of the Stanley Cup finals, and the law of averages states that they inevitably will start losing some of these 1 goal decisions. The authoritative statistical probability website, Sports Club Stats, still only has them listed as being a 1.8% chance to make it into the playoffs this season, but if they can complete this absolutely astronomical turnaround, the Devil will be a very scary matchup for one of the top 4 seeds in the East.

*Speaker of the House John Boehner is putting together his legal options to challenge Obama's plans to not enforce DOMA laws. This little culture war salvo is a bit unexpected given the current focus on fiscal issues and the laser-like focus on job creation promised by GOP leadership.

*It seems like Mario Lemieux was once again right, and the NHL and pompous Canadian media blowhards were wrong in regards to a situation with the League. After Mario blasted the league for not throwing the book at Trevor Gillies and the New York Islanders in the wake of an absolute travesty of a contest on February 11th which saw Gillies concuss young forward Eric Tangradi with a blindside elbow to the head, continue to pound on him as Tangradi lay helpless on the ice, and mock him from the runway as the training staff attended to the injured skater. Tangradi has yet to return to action, but after the league mandated 9 game suspension, Gillies was back at it again on Wednesday night. He saw less then 4 shifts and 2 minutes of ice time before he once again took a blindside flying elbow to the head of Minnesota Wild forward Cal Clutterbuck, who is now out with a concussion “upper body injury.” What did the league determine was just reprieve for a thug who obviously didn’t learn his lesson the first time around? 10 games measly games this time was what they saw fit to lay at his doorstep for his grevious misdeeds. He should have been gone for the year, and possibly all of next season as well. There is totally no place for him in this league. For those who claim the game of hockey is nothing but a circus freakshow on skates, all they have to do is point to Trevor Gillies being back out there on March 26th against the Philadelphia Flyers and I will have absolutely no rebuttal.

*Both sides in the debate over the State budget and the future of public sector unions remain entrenched in their hardline positions. Governer Scott Walker continues to insist upon stripping the unions of their collective bargaining powers and forcing them to recertify every year. Democratic State senators stay in self imposed exile so that legislation remains at a standstill in Madison.

Update on Arab Revolutions

Obama calls on Gaddafi to step down in Libya, okays use of sanctions. It is obvious that any moral standing Gaddafi had is long gone, but will sanctions and harsh rhetoric really accomplish anything? At what point do his actions against his own people warrent direct action by the UN Security Council? Ideally, Obama can get desired results without using force in this growing North Africa/Mid-East unrest. Saudi Arabia will remain the tipping point however, I believe. If there is an uprising in the heart of the Arab Kingdom like we have seen elsewhere in that part of the world, it will no longer be a tenable choice for the rest of the world to sit on the sidelines.

Civil Unrest in the Arab world

Saudi Arabia to spend billions in social welfare to further placate their populous. The royals are freaking over protests across the region. I am torn, I like democracy for all people of the world, but fear economic harm from gas prices if SA does fall into turmoil. Libya moves toward freedom, more pain and casualties then Eygpts uprising. I support them in their brave efforts to overthrow a tyrant. I hope Iran is next. I would also like to see new free peoples alliance bloc formed in the region to oppose the dictatorial regimes monopoly on power.