2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 3

With potential unifying frontrunner, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee dropping out of consideration for the 2012 Republican Nomination for President of the United States, the race just got blown wide open. Who will benefit most from Huckabee dropping out? We have a new list of rankings and news stories below. Click here to view last week’s standings for comparison if you are interested in how this race has unfolded thus far.
I’ll be keeping the trend and the updated stories surrounding the candidates, if you are interested in anything else for these rankings please leave a comment below or email me: zargoflaroche@yahoo.com


1) Mitt Romney Trending Even (Last Week: 2)- With Huckabee dropping out, Romney reclaims his mantle as fatally flawed front runner. As Governor of Massachusetts, Romney signed a healthcare law similar to Obama’s with a mandate and voucher system. Evangelicals don’t trust Romney’s Mormon faith, and Fiscal Conservatives are skeptical as well. These are two crucial blocs that will be out in force in the 2012 primaries. He will not run well in Iowa or South Carolina in the early primaries, so he absolutely must win New Hampshire and try to parlay that into some sort of momentum. If Florida manages to get all its delegates seated due to its defiance of the established primary order, Romney has a chance to score a big victory there. It is a pretty tight needle for Romney to thread,and he is looking more and more like 2012's Rudy Giuliani
Headline: Why Romney's Authenticity Problem Won't Go Away


2) Sarah Palin Trending Up (Last Week: 3)- It is Palin who stands to benefit most from Huckabee’s exit, she now takes on the role of the candidate most likely to unite social and fiscal conservatives. If she is going to make a run, I feel she has wisely chosen to stay out of the headlines and in the background of this early speculation. When she is ready to jump in, she will do so headfirst and nobody in this field can move the needle as a fundraiser and garner as much media attention as Palin can.
Headline: Sarah Palin Supporters Dance On The Grave Of Mike Huckabee’s 2012 Presidential Run


3) Donald Trump Trending Down (Last Week: 4)- The initial buzz about the Real Estate Mogul and Reality TV star has died down, and I will continue to question his credentials and seriousness as a candidate until he does something to prove otherwise. His poll numbers move him up in the rankings by default, but I don’t think those polls will square with reality when, and if, the rubber ever really meets the road on a Trump candidacy.
Headline: Election 2012: Donald Trump Losing Favor Even Before He Enters the Race


4) Newt Gingrich Trending Up (Last Week: 6)- The former House Speaker rounds out the top 4, after which there is a serious drop off in the candidates below this spot. If he can grab the southern white males that Huckabee left behind, there is a chance for him to make a hard charge. His biggest liabilities are his temper and all the residual baggage that comes from his longtime stay in the media spotlight.
Headline: Newt Ditches Mandates Today After Defending Them ... Yesterday


5) Ron Paul Trending Even (Last Week: 5)- Paul will pretty much keep an even keel as an also run candidate. His core supporters are fiercely dedicated him, but he seems to lack the charisma and gumption to move up the ladder. He might be too honest of a man to get a nod at the Presidency. His best case scenario for this race is that his ideas transcend and go farther than his candidacy does.
Headline: Ron Paul: Why The Young Flock To An Old Idealist


6)Rick Santorum Trending Up (Last Week: 9)- If Huckabee’s socially conservative supporters are looking for a new standard bearer, the former Senator from Pennsylvania just might be their man. I’ll be watching closely to see if he scores an uptick in the polls and the underlying numbers as a result of Huck’s exit. If he doesn’t get a bounce, it may be time for him to seriously reconsider if he is a legitimate candidate.
Headline: Back Channels: A chat with Rick Santorum


7)Michelle Bachman Trending Up (Last Week: 8)- The firebrand congresswomen from suburban Minnesota is great at getting her name out there with soundbites. If the Tea Party momentum can swing behind her, she has a good chance to vault ahead into the top of the field at some point.
Headline: Minn. GOP Rep. Bachmann: From school board agitator to tea party hero unsettling 2012 campaign


8)Tim Pawlenty Trending Down (Last Week: 7)-Pawlenty needs to do some serious soul searching if he is to continue on toward the nomination. He needs some issue to rally around and take ownership of. Right now he is just treading water toward the bottom of the field, and is not even doing a good job of that.
Headline: A surprisingly early emphasis for Pawlenty campaign: foreign policy


9) Mitch Daniels Trending Even (Last Week: 10)-The Governor of Indiana is a smart man and good political operative, but can he get his name recognition up there and make enough of a splash to get into serious contention? As acting Governor he may end up taking a hard line on Labor issues in his State in order to garnish his reputation as a Conservative’s Conservative.
Headline: Daniels Vetoes Forfeiture Bill; Unconstitutional


10) Herman Cain Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked)- The conservative talk radio host and former pizza exec. is a Tea Party favorite and scored some strong points in an early Fox News debate, albeit with many of the major players still on the sidelines. He is gaining some momentum however, and it will be interesting to see how far his charge goes and if he registers any points in upcoming polls. Headline: Cain a smash at Georgia GOP convention

2012 GOP Nomination Standings, Week 2

Here is an update on the 2012 Republican Primary Horse Race, for last weeks rankings see the bottom of this post.
This week I also plan to start including trend indications and new headlines to go along with each candidate. If you guys have anything else you'd like to see included feel free to comment or email me about it.

1) Mike Huckabee Trending Up (Last Week: 2)- In a currently tight three way race, the Huckster edges just ahead of Mitt Romney and Donald Trump in the general poll. His underlying numbers among ardent conservatives secures his bump up to the one spot.
Current Headline: Huckabee tops South Carolina poll

2) Mitt Romney Trending Down (Last Week: 1)- His poll numbers show him in a tight race with Huckabee for the early lead, Romeny remains a polished and savvy pol, but minor gaffes like his 'peacetime' comment will be exploited and recycled by talk radio and the conservative web sphere, which are already philosophically against him.
Current Headline: Mitt Romney isn't at peace after his peacetime comment‎

3) Sarah Palin- Trending Steady (Last Week: 3)- The polarizing former Governor is struggling to maintain credibility, but her name recognition will keep her alive in this race if she does run. The best thing for her would be to stay in the background and bone up for the debates to show she is a ‘serious’ candidate.
Current Headline: Complaints aside, Sarah Palin dominates GOP media landscape

4)Donald Trump- Trending Up (Last Week: 4)- I still refuse to completely believe he is truly considering entering the race, but the polls have him practically tied for the lead with Huckabee. This doesn't quite square, because his rhetoric has been far right, while his support has come from the more moderate wings of the Party. His celebrity status will serve him well for now, but assuming this isn't just for publicity, I don't see him holding up to the actual rigors of a long campaign season.
Current Headline: Donald Trump moves on from birthers, now says President Obama wasn't qualified for Ivy League

5) Ron Paul- Trending Up (Last Week: 4)- The smart, anti-establishment choice will be a player in the debates, but don’t expect his final numbers to get much better then where they are at right now.
Current Headline: Ron Paul to Sean Hannity: Stop with Your Sharia!

6) Newt Gingrich Trending Down (Last Week: 7)- The former speakers numbers in the polls speak for themselves. His is a contender, but probably doesn’t have the stuff to be the champion and standard bearer for his party once again.
Current Headline: Newt Gingrich on why he became a Catholic

7) Tim Pawlenty Trending Down (Last Week: 6)- Poor Tim seems like a decent hardworking fellow, but even his home State press in Minnesota is coming to terms with his inability to excite on a national level.
Current Headline: Pawlenty campaign efforts not showing up in polling

8) Michelle Bachman- Trending Steady (Last Week: 8)- The Conservative Firebrand can stand to gain ground if Huckabee falters and/or Palin decides not to run. With Barbour dropping out, she becomes this blogs official darkhorse candidate. She will at least make a lot of noise before (and after) this race is over.
Current Headline: Bachmann worries about ability to block debt-ceiling increase

9) Rick Santorum Trending Up (Last Week: 10)- The favorite son of social conservatives is still in the background, but has a chance to vault up, especially if the economy improves and the GOP needs to tact a different course of attack on Obama to drum up the grassroots.
Current Headline: Santorum’s Frothy Fox News Sunday

10) Mitch Daniels Trending Up (Last Week: Unranked) With his close friend Haley Barbour officially dropping out, the former Indiana Gov sneaks into the top 10. His numbers on level with Santorum, but in his support among the grassroots there is some ground to make up.
Current Headline: Does Haley Barbour's opt out mean Mitch Daniels will opt in?