Today the rubber hits the road in the New Hampshire Primary.
From what I can see so far, this State is definitely Mitt Romney's to lose. Coming off a razor thin win in Iowa against the surprisingly surging Rick Santorum, Romney certainly needs a more significant margin of victory to solidify his status as front runner coming out of the Granite State. The word “inevitable” is starting to find its way around Romney’s path to the nomination, but no matter how well he does in New Hampshire, he will not be able to sow things up in this 1st in the nation primary.
The Anti-Romney forces have pretty much conceded the New England early battleground to him, and plan to make their last, best pitch to the much more stridently conservative citizens of South Carolina. Rick Perry is already there, hoping that some Southern Home Cookin’ will suit him better than the bitterly independent residents of small town Bedford, Berlin, and Barrington.
Jon Huntsman has staked almost his entire campaign on New Hampshire and a poor showing here would all but sink his aspirations for the Oval Office. He has had a bit of a mini-surge recently, but his followers hoping for a Santorum-in-Iowa like showing are probably not basing their expectations within reality.
Speaking of Santorum, he has ridden the wave of momentum coming out of his stunning surprise in the Hawkeye State with some savvy, raising quite a bit of cash which is like lifeblood to these campaigns, but New Hampshire is not exactly fertile ground for his brand of conservatism. Mike Huckabee won Iowa outright in 2008 on the back of evangelicals, but couldn’t crack 11% in this primary. Santorum should expect about the same number. He needs to somehow convince a lot of Newt Gingrich supporters that he is actually their man to beat Romney in South Carolina in order for him to extend the contest much further.
And of course Ron Paul is going to be in this thing for the long haul. I am more and more convinced his strategy is not to win the nomination outright, but to force the eventual nominees hand by collecting enough delegates to get some of his stridently held ideals into the platform for the General Election. We shall see if the hardline libertarian handcuffs the Republicans or opens the gates to infuse the enthusiasm of his demographically dissimilar base into the usually staid convention halls of the Grand Old Party.
It should be an interesting night to watch the results come in, not so much for the eventual winner, but to see who the real losers are. At this point it is all about fundraising, media spin, and campaign narrative as the actual delegate count will be rather insignificant from this early race.
Here are the numbers I expect to see, and if any of these candidates come in +/- 5% or more from the expected # it can be spun as a big win (or loss) for their campaign:
Mitt Romney: 40%
Jon Huntsman: 18%
Ron Paul: 16%
Rick Santorum: 11%
Newt Gingrich: 10%
Rick Perry: 2%
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