Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Can Pens win Cup without Malkin?

The Pittsburgh Penguins title hopes were dealt a severe blow when Star Forward Evgeni Malkin went down with a season ending knee injury Feb. 4th against the Buffalo Sabres. Without their former Conn Smythe winner, are the Pens still a legit threat to win the cup?
Obviously the most important part of that question relies on the health of their other star forward, Sidney Crosby, who is battling back from a concussion suffered in early January. Sid must be able to not only come back this spring, but also be able to get his game back to the level it was at before he went down with the injury for his team to have any chance of a long playoff run. The thinking here is that if he can’t get back on the ice at least practicing by early March that it will be very difficult for him to build back up his strength and conditioning to the point where he can get through the playoffs carrying the team offensively. I’m not saying this in hopes that the Pens rush him back, just the opposite in fact. If the calendar is winding into March and his symptoms haven’t subsided, what is the drop-dead date for the team just shutting him down for the season and telling him to go relax at some secluded beach resort until he absolutely feels 100% better? Too much of the teams future is tied into Crosby, and with Malkin already down they have to put a deadline on bringing him back and risking further complications.

But let’s assume that they can get Crosby back and project that his game will be at least around 90-95% of what it was on December 31st come playoff time? At that point they have the game’s biggest offensive weapon, a pretty well proven big game playoff goaltender, a good cast of role-player forwards, and a very solid, if slightly under-experienced blueline.

IF GM Ray Shero thinks he can get Crosby back and healthy, I would say this team is two players away from a cup run. A veteran blueline lunch-pail guy to fill the 7th spot on the roster, and the elusive scoring winger unicorn for Sid to play with. One dude who fits that scoring winger role is going up against the Pens today, Feb. 16th, Milan Hejduk of the Colorado Avalanche. Hejduk would have to waive the no-movement clause in his contract to be out the door to Pittsburgh or anywhere else, but he is an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season and can choose to play wherever he likes at that point anyway. The Avs are struggling mightily, Peter Forsberg's comeback lasted all of two games, and the team has dropped 8 in a row, the latest being a 9-1 drubbing at the hands of the Calgary Flames on Feb. 14th, and are now a full 10 points out of the last playoff spot in the very tough Western Conference. Although he has spent his entire career with the Colorado organization, it’s hard to speculate that Hejduk would object to being dealt to a contender this spring to put up some numbers and get a chance to shine in the playoff spotlight once again. The Czech winger is 35 years old and this most likely will be his last chance to cash in on a high dollar multi-year contract this summer.

He would slot in very nicely with Crosby and Pascal Dupuis on the Pens top line, which would allow Chris Kunitz to play with Jordan Staal on the 2nd line and provide some quality depth scoring. It also leaves the door open for a 3rd line that clicked earlier in the season for the team of Chris Conner, Mark Letestu and Tyler Kennedy, and a 4th line would be loaded with tons of playoff proven sandpaper.

Dupuis-Crosby-Hejduk
Cooke-Staal-Kunitz
Conner-Letestu-Kennedy
Asham/Rupp-Talbot-Adams

I think with the emergence of Letestu as a capable 3rd line center, they can definitely afford to move versatile prospect Dustin Jeffrey at the deadline along with a high draft pick to acquire a top wing rental for Sid, again with the caveat that Crosby is getting some quality symptom free days in his recovery process come the 2/28 trade deadline.
According to Tim Benz of WXDX in Pittsburgh, Crosby is still going through a very frustrating good day/bad day routine right now where he was still experiencing headaches as recently as Saturday, Feb. 13th.

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